Election poll predicts one big Labour win in Lincolnshire with many constituencies up for grabs

A recent poll suggests that many Lincolnshire constituencies could go either way in this year’s general election. Ipsos, a global leader in market research, published a poll based on a survey of almost 20,000 participants and population data at a constituency level, to project which party will win individual seats.

Nationally, Ipsos predicts that the Tories will win a range of between 99 to 123 seats, while Labour will win a range of 439 to 462 seats. In Lincolnshire, the data predicts one big win for Labour in the Lincoln constituency with a 52 per cent share of the votes.

The only Conservative wins considered to be ‘likely’ in Lincolnshire are the Rutland and Stamford constituency and South Holland and The Deepings, with a 38 per cent and 40 per cent share of the votes respectively. One constituency with a Conservative lean is Louth and Horncastle with a 38 per cent share of the vote compared to Labour’s 31.

Read more: Full list of Lincolnshire general election candidates

Elsewhere in the county, Ipsos predicts that the share of votes will be much closer. In Gainsborough, which has been Conservative for many years, a toss-up between Conservative (37 per cent) and Labour (33 per cent) is predicted.

Sleaford and North Hykeham is also predicted to be closely fought between Conservative and Labour with a 36 per cent and 33 per cent share of the votes respectively. Grantham and Bourne follows the same pattern as Gainsborough, with Conservatives expected to take 37 per cent while Labour takes 33 per cent.

Notably, the Boston and Skegness constituency is currently a toss-up between Conservative (35 per cent) and Reform UK (32 per cent), according to Ipsos.

Full list of Ipsos election predictions for Lincolnshire


Conservative: 24%

Labour: 52%

Lib Dem: 4%

Reform: 12%

Green: 7%


Conservative: 37%

Labour: 33%

Lib Dem: 9%

Reform: 17%

Green: 3%

Sleaford and North Hykeham:

Conservative: 36%

Labour: 33%

Lib Dem: 7%

Reform: 20%

Green: 4%

Boston and Skegness:

Conservative: 35%

Labour: 24%

Lib Dem: 5%

Reform: 32%

Green: 4%

Grantham and Bourne:

Conservative: 37%

Labour: 33%

Lib Dem: 5%

Reform: 18%

Green: 7%

Louth and Horncastle:

Conservative: 38%

Labour: 31%

Lib Dem: 5%

Reform: 23%

Green: 2%

South Holland and The Deepings:

Conservative: 40%

Labour: 28%

Lib Dem: 8%

Reform: 19%

Green: 5%

Rutland and Stamford:

Conservative: 38%

Labour: 26%

Lib Dem: 18%

Reform: 13%

Green: 4%

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